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| Satiric
Prognostication:
A Comparative Empirical Analysis of Accuracy
Kohle Torgenson
Psychic predictions
of the future have proven to be less than potent
when subjected to the rigors of empirical scrutiny.
This study assesses the scientific veracity of
satirism as a fortune-telling method, using a
need-driven psychic assessment protocol.
[This
paper is also available in PDF format]
Introduction
The gift of divination has long
been thought of as a mystic trait bestowed upon
fringe members of society, usually rising from the
gypsy strata (Morten, 1992). Over the past twenty
years, however, standard psychic procedures have
been called into question and subsequently disproved
through scientific experimentation. No longer do
logical, science-minded people trust in Tarot cards,
palmistry or tea leaf orientation for visions of
the future. Yet the value of knowing the direction
of the future cannot be denied. The potential sighting
of future plagues, economic downturns and social
trends would be invaluable for politicians, marketers,
and fashion designers alike.
One area of futurism which has
shown potential for predicting forthcoming events
is satirism. Satirism is the process of applying
comedic principals to possible futures, and devising
reasonable, if not occasionally hilarious, results.
Satirism is the most recent of the predictive arts,
and as such has not yet been subjected to the rigors
of empirical evaluation. So in the pursuit of clear,
reliable fortune-telling science, the application
of comedic foreshadowing, or satirism, will herein
be assessed through rigorous scientific experimentation.
Method
The downfall of most empirical
assessments of futurism is the lack of context and
potential impact on participants’ lives. Standard
scientific tests of futurism involve prediction
of playing card sequences and randomly generated
dice rolls that have no direct bearing on anyone’s
future. There is a strand of futurism that claims
that “need drives prediction towards permanent
eventualities” (Cozmo, 1998). The element
of necessity is a key variable to be controlled,
in order to quiet any criticism of the scientific
evaluation of satirism as a method of divination.
To this end, a randomly selected male test subject
from a “marriage enrichment” couples’
therapy group was used to compare the predictive
power of one prominent comedian and satirist, one
astrologist, and one Lucky 8-Ball. Gary, the test
subject, was permitted to spend fifteen minutes
with each futurist to determine his impending health,
economic, and romantic outlooks. He was instructed
to provide each futurist with only his real name
and date of birth, along with relevant questions
and a gentle shake if required.
All future-predictions took place
in a smoke-filled room with red ambient lighting
and gentle salsa music playing, the standard environment
employed to control all variables in common divination
studies (Malach, 1978). All sessions were audio
recorded and recordings were transcribed for analysis
purposes. Segments of these transcripts have been
provided below.
Seven months after the meetings,
Gary was interviewed to assess the accuracy of each
futurist’s prediction.
Results
Due to the varied nature of each
divination protocol, the results are recorded as
conversations and summarized in table 1.
Future Predictions According
to an Astrologist
Astrologist: What is
your date of birth, Gary?
Gary: You know my name?
Astrologist: You signed a form and put
your name on it.
Gary: Oh. I was born on March 27, 1968.
Astrologist: An Aries.
Gary: Yes.
Astrologist: What would you like to know?
Gary: How healthy will I be in the future?
Astrologist: The majority of the planets
are in the top of your sixth astrological house,
indicating that your health will be a main issue
for you over then next several months. You will
focus on losing weight and avoiding high-fat foods.
Gary: Does that mean I’ll be healthy?
Astrologist: Since Mercury rises coinciding
with your moon nodes, you will think you are less
healthy than you are.
Gary: So I’ll be healthy?
Astrologist: Sure.
Gary: Will I be financially secure?
Astrologist: Pluto is found in your sixth
house, so it is certain that you will have financial
strength in your future.
Gary: That’s good. So, then what
does my love-life hold?
Astrologist: Your water signs seem to conflict
with Mars, which indicates that you will invest
a lot of your feelings into your emotions.
Gary: So that means…
Astrologist: You’ll be very emotionally
involved over the next few weeks, but it will work
out for you in the end.
Gary: I can handle that.
Future Predictions According
to a Lucky 8-Ball (L8B)
Gary: Will I be healthy
in the future?
L8B: Most likely.
Gary: Will I be wealthy in the future?
L8B: Better not to tell you now.
Gary: Why not?
L8B: Concentrate and ask again.
Gary: Will I be able to afford the things
I want in the future?
L8B: My sources say no.
Gary: Will I be able to afford some of
the things I want in the future?
L8B: As I see it, yes.
Gary: Okay, will I be lucky in love in
the future?
L8B: Signs point to yes.
Gary: Will my wife stay with me?
L8B: Most likely.
Gary: Will my wife find out about my affair
with Mindy?
L8B: Reply hazy, try again.
Gary: Will my wife find out about my affair
with Mindy?
L8B: Don’t count on it.
Gary: Cool.
Future Predictions According
to a Satirist
Satirist: So, how are
you all doing?
Gary: (Cheering).
Satirist: Thanks folks. I saw this guy
in the lobby before the show, and I have to tell
you, he was large. And when I say large, I mean
enlarged prostate large. The guy was bursting at
the seams. I know a heart attack when I see one,
and this guy will need a weather balloon for his
next angioplasty.
Gary: Where is everyone? Am I the only
one here?
Satirist: Seriously folks, someone needs
to stop this guy before his wife leaves him. I mean,
I’d sue the man for half his supper.
Gary: I’m just big boned.
Satirist: If he could cut back on his portions,
maybe he could afford to do something nice every
now and then. You know, like let someone else lick
the gravy off his plate.
Gary: You suck (leaves).
Follow Up
Seven months after Gary’s
divinations, a post-prediction follow-up analysis
indicated that he had developed an irregular heartbeat
and been divorced by his wife because of his infidelity.
Communications with Gary’s lawyer also indicated
that he had lost half of his assets in the divorce,
and that he would be needing to move into low-income
housing in order to pay a hefty monthly alimony
settlement. Given the grim nature of Gary’s
future, it can be concluded that the predictions
of the satirist aligned most closely with his realized
future.
Discussion
Given the limited quality of the
satire used in this experiment, satirism, or the
application of comedic principles to predict future
events, appears to be a valid method of divination,
in comparison with standard predictive arts. Further
correlation studies need to be conducted to determine
if the quality of satire is directly proportional
to the quality of prediction. Satirical prediction
invites opportunists of all sorts to benefit from
foretold events. It isn’t difficult to envision
comedy bars and street performers branching their
already lucrative talents into futurism. Certainly
the opportunity for profiteering from knowledge
gained from this new found skill will send reverberations
through the world’s stock markets and gambling
institutions. It doesn’t require a wicked
sense of humour to envision the impact of a snide
remark removing the factor of chance from lottery
ticket buying or investment banking.
This research also opens the door
for investigation into computer-generated predictions
of the future using satirical logic to evaluate
forthcoming events. However, a cautionary note must
be voiced, as such software would run the risk of
becoming obsolete if the topic being satirized were
to become relatively unfunny (Janzen, 1986).
References
Cozmo, S. (1998). Needs and
fortune. San Francisco, CA: Starsights Press.
Janzen, D. (1986). Dead-baby jokes: How many dead-babies
does it take to ruin a joke? Journal of Comedic
Arts, 15(2), 221-243.
Malach, V. (1978). Setting the mood for the divine.
Journal of Comedic Arts, 7(2), 115-135.
Morten, D. (1992). Modern-day gypsies.
Port Alberny, BC: Moving Press.
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